期刊
LAND USE POLICY
卷 91, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104410
关键词
Housing prices; Population density; Total factor productivity; Spatial panel data model
资金
- NSFC-ESRC Joint Funding [NSFC7161101095]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [NSFC71573166, NSFC71834005, NSFC71673232, NSFC71173045, NSFC71903131]
- Research Grant Council of Hong Kong, China [CityU 11271716, CityU 21209715]
- Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, PanThird Pole Environment Study for a Green Silk Road (Pan-TPE) [XDA20040400]
- CityU Internal Funds [9680195, 9610386]
- China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2019M653047]
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (Beijing Normal University) [2017-KF-10]
The issue of what to promote in total factor productivity (TFP) in urban areas has been widely discussed in academia and housing prices and population density are confirmed to be two of the most essential driving factors. However, research into the interaction of housing prices and population density with TFP has been neglected, with no previous studies taking spatial factors into consideration, which may bias the results. From this perspective, using spatial panel data models and employing instrumental variables to solve the endogenous problem, this study examines the impact of housing prices on TFP through the mediating effect of population density for 283 Chinese cities during the period 2000-2013, and confirms that the mediating effect accounts for 18.70 % of the total effect. The results show the positive and significant association of housing prices with TFP and the inverted U-shape of population density. The underlying logic is that housing prices change population density by attracting people with high purchasing power and discouraging those unable to afford housing, whereas increased density helps to promote productivity since the settled inhabitants always have highly developed work skills and are well educated. The influencing mechanism of housing prices on TFP through population density is analyzed, namely the spillover effect. We find that the spillover effect exists in the eastern and central regions, as well as first, second, and third tier cities, while for western regions and fifth tier cities, population mobility and increased in housing prices slows their economic development. There is no evidence of any spillover effect in fourth tier cities. A discussion and suggested policy implications are also provided.
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