期刊
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
卷 30, 期 13, 页码 4897-4913出版社
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0554.1
关键词
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资金
- Department of Defense (DOD) through the National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship (NDSEG) Program
- Atmospheric Sciences Research Center (ASRC) Graduate Fellowship
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany
Despite recent improvements made to tropical cyclone intensity predictions, this study investigates a different approach than those attempted thus far. Here, the overall environmental setup at genesis is evaluated to determine whether it predisposes a storm to reach its future maximum intensity. Variables retrieved from ERA-Interim are used to generate storm-centered composites at the time of genesis for Atlantic basin, main development region TCs from 1979-2015. Composites are stratified by their maximum attained intensity: tropical depressions (GTD), tropical storms (GTS), minor hurricanes (GMN), or major hurricanes (GMJ). A multiple-parameter linear regression is then used to associate the eventual attained intensity of tropical cyclone to the obtained variables at genesis. The regression has an adjusted r(2) of 0.39, which indicates that a statistical relationship is present. Regression coefficients, along with the spatial distribution of variables in the storm-centered composites, indicate that storms that reach higher intensities are associated at genesis with stronger, more compact, low-level vortices, better-defined outflow jets, a more compact region of high midlevel relative humidity, and higher atmospheric water vapor content.
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