期刊
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
卷 167, 期 -, 页码 938-950出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.145
关键词
Multi-criteria decision analysis; Life cycle assessment; Power generation sector; Low-carbon energy scenarios; Brazil
资金
- European Union [EuropeAid/131944/C/SER/Multi]
- U.S. Agency for International Development
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [DW89923040, DW89923951US]
- 7th European Union Framework Programme [PIRSES-GA-2013-612263]
The Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven by, on one hand, a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other hand, international goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this work is to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power sector until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Considering the results from multi-criteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power sector. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power sector is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless of the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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