期刊
MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT
卷 47, 期 5, 页码 615-632出版社
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2020.1729437
关键词
Fuel consumption prediction; container ships; artificial neural network; multilayer perceptron; liner shipping
资金
- National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) - Korea government (MSIT) [2018R1C1B6006330]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2018R1C1B6006330] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
Due to the outstanding strength of advanced machine-learning techniques, they have become increasingly common in predictive studies in recent years, particularly in predicting ship energy performance. In constructing predictive models, prior studies have mostly employed vessels' technical parameters to establish machine-learning algorithms. To bridge this research gap and enable wider applications, this paper presents the design of a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP ANN) as a machine-learning technique to estimate ship fuel consumption. We utilized the real operational data from 100-143 container ships to estimate fuel consumption for five different container ships grouped by size. We compared the performance of two ANN models and two multiple-regression models. Four input parameters (sailing time, speed, cargo weight, and capacity) were included in the first ANN and the first regression model, while the other two models only consider two inputs from physical function. The mean absolute percentage error of the ANN models with four inputs was the smallest and less than those in extended statistical models, demonstrating the MLP's superiority over the statistical model. The MLP ANN model can thus be applied to confirm the effectiveness of the slow-steaming method for achieving energy efficiency.
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