期刊
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
卷 13, 期 2, 页码 763-781出版社
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-763-2020
关键词
-
资金
- ERC [338965-A2C2]
- CoCliServ project, ERA4CS, an ERA-NET
- European Union (H2020-EU.3.5.1. research and innovation program) [690462]
Simulating ensembles of extreme events is a necessary task to evaluate their probability distribution and analyze their meteorological properties. Algorithms of importance sampling have provided a way to simulate trajectories of dynamical systems (like climate models) that yield extreme behavior, like heat waves. Such algorithms also give access to the return periods of such events. We present an adaptation based on circulation analogues of importance sampling to provide a data-based algorithm that simulates extreme events like heat waves in a realistic way. This algorithm is a modification of a stochastic weather generator, which gives more weight to trajectories with higher temperatures. This presentation outlines the methodology using European heat waves and illustrates the spatial and temporal properties of simulations.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据