期刊
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
卷 17, 期 3, 页码 2676-2692出版社
AMER INST MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES-AIMS
DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020146
关键词
COVID-19; dynamic model; prediction; Sina-microblog
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [61801440]
- Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Canada Research Chair Program
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
- High quality and Cutting-edge Disciplines Construction Project for Universities in Beijing (Internet Information, Communication University of China)
The outbreak of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) generated an outbreak of public opinions in the Chinese Sina-microblog. To help in designing effective communication strategies during a major public health emergency, we propose a multiple-information susceptible-discussing-immune (M-SDI) model in order to understand the patterns of key information propagation on social networks. We develop the M-SDI model, based on the public discussion quantity and take into account of the behavior that users may re-enter another related topic or Weibo after discussing one. Data fitting using the real data of COVID-19 public opinion obtained from Chinese Sina-microblog can parameterize the model to make accurate prediction of the public opinion trend until the next major news item occurs. The reproduction ratio has fallen from 1.7769 and maintained around 0.97, which reflects the peak of public opinion has passed but it will continue for a period of time.
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