Longer-Term Investigation of the Value of F-18-FDG-PET and Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Predicting the Conversion of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease: A Multicenter Study

Background: The value of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (F-18-FDG-PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting conversion of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in longer-term is unclear. Objective: To evaluate longer-term prediction of MCI to AD conversion using F-18-FDG-PET and MRI in a multicenter study. Methods: One-hundred and fourteen patients with MCI were followed for 5 years. They underwent clinical and neuropsychological examinations, F-18-FDG-PET, and MRI at baseline. PET images were visually classified into predefined dementia patterns. PET scores were calculated as a semi quantitative index. For structural MRI, z-scores in medial temporal area were calculated by automated volume-based morphometry (VBM). Results: Overall, 72% patients with amnestic MCI progressed to AD during the 5-year follow-up. The diagnostic accuracy of PET scores over 5 years was 60% with 53% sensitivity and 84% specificity. Visual interpretation of PET images predicted conversion to AD with an overall 82% diagnostic accuracy, 94% sensitivity, and 53% specificity. The accuracy of VBM analysis presented little fluctuation through 5 years and it was highest (73%) at the 5-year follow-up, with 79% sensitivity and 63% specificity. The best performance (87.9% diagnostic accuracy, 89.8% sensitivity, and 82.4% specificity) was with a combination identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis that included PET visual interpretation, educational level, and neuropsychological tests as predictors. Conclusion: F-18-FDG-PET visual assessment showed high performance for predicting conversion to AD from MCI, particularly in combination with neuropsychological tests. PET scores showed high diagnostic specificity. Structural MRI focused on the medial temporal area showed stable predictive value throughout the 5-year course.