期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HYDROGEN ENERGY
卷 42, 期 52, 页码 30470-30492出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2017.10.045
关键词
Water electrolysis; Energy storage; Expert elicitation; Capital cost; Lifetime; Innovation
资金
- Imperial College Grantham Institute
- ESRC Imperial College London Impact Acceleration Accounts [EP/K503733/1, ES/M500562/1]
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/I501053/1, EP/K503733/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Natural Environment Research Council [1651186] Funding Source: researchfish
- EPSRC [EP/I501053/1] Funding Source: UKRI
The need for energy storage to balance intermittent and inflexible electricity supply with demand is driving interest in conversion of renewable electricity via electrolysis into a storable gas. But, high capital cost and uncertainty regarding future cost and performance improvements are barriers to investment in water electrolysis. Expert elicitations can support decision-making when data are sparse and their future development uncertain. Therefore, this study presents expert views on future capital cost, lifetime and efficiency for three electrolysis technologies: alkaline (AEC), proton exchange membrane (PEMEC) and solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC). Experts estimate that increased R&D funding can reduce capital costs by 0-24%, while production scale-up alone has an impact of 17-30%. System lifetimes may converge at around 60,000-90,000 h and efficiency improvements will be negligible. In addition to innovations on the cell-level, experts highlight improved production methods to automate manufacturing and produce higher quality components. Research into SOECs with lower electrode polarisation resistance or zero-gap AECs could undermine the projected dominance of PEMEC systems. This study thereby reduces barriers to investment in water electrolysis and shows how expert elicitations can help guide near-term investment, policy and research efforts to support the development of electrolysis for low-carbon energy systems. (C) 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC.
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