期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE
卷 32, 期 4, 页码 685-710出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2017.1407415
关键词
Coupled natural-human system; population dynamics; coastal hazards; resilience; Mississippi Delta
类别
资金
- National Science Foundation [1212112, 1427389]
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie
- Division Of Behavioral and Cognitive Sci [1212112] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Earth Sciences [1427389] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
This study developed a spatial dynamic model to examine the coupled natural-human responses in the form of changes in population and associated developed land area in the Lower Mississippi River Basin region. The goal was to identify key socioeconomic factors (utility) and environmental factors (hazard damages, elevation, and subsidence rate) that affected population changes, as well as to examine how population changes affected the local utility and the local environment reciprocally. We first applied areal interpolation techniques with the volume-preserving property to transform all the data at Year 2000 into a unified 3km by 3km cellular space. We then built an Elastic Net model to extract 12 variables from a set of 33 for the spatial dynamic model. Afterward, we calibrated the neighborhood effects with a genetic algorithm and use the spatial dynamic model to simulate population and developed land area in 2010. Furthermore, we took a Monte Carlo approach for analyzing the uncertainty of the model outcome. Our accuracy assessment shows that the model on average slightly overpredicts the number of population and the developed land percentage at 2010, as indicated by the low values of mean absolute deviation (MAD) due to quantity. On the other hand, the MADs due to allocation are larger than the MADs due to quantity, with most outliers found in the New Orleans region where population and urban development declined significantly during 2000-2010 after Hurricane Katrina. The proposed model sheds light on the complex relationships between coastal hazards and human responses and provides useful insights to strategic development for coastal sustainability.
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