期刊
ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION
卷 144, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105652
关键词
Bicycle safety; Exposure; Random parameter negative binomial model; Land use; Travel behavior
类别
资金
- Research Grants Council of Hong Kong [25203717]
- Hong Kong Polytechnic University [1-ZE5V]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71701042, 71701046]
- Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China [51638004]
Cycling is increasingly promoted as a sustainable transport mode. However, bicyclists are more vulnerable to fatality and severe injury in road crashes, compared to vehicle occupants. It is necessary to identify the contributory factors to crashes and injuries involving bicyclists. For the prediction of motor vehicle crashes, comprehensive traffic count data, i.e. AADT and vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT), are commonly available to proxy the exposure. However, extensive bicycle count data are usually not available. In this study, revealed bicycle trip data of a public bicycle rental system in the Greater London is used to proxy the bicycle crash exposure. Random parameter negative binomial models are developed to measure the relationship between possible risk factors and bicycle crash frequency at the zonal level, based on the crash data in the Greater London in 2012-2013. Results indicate that model taking the bicycle use time as the exposure measure is superior to the other counterparts with the lowest AIC (Akaike information criterion) and BIC (Bayesian information criterion). Bicycle crash frequency is positively correlated to road density, commercial area, proportion of elderly, male and white race, and median household income. Additionally, separate bicycle crash prediction models are developed for different seasons. Effects of the presence of Cycle Superhighway and proportion of green area on bicycle crash frequency can vary across seasons. Findings of this study are indicative to the development of bicycle infrastructures, traffic management and control, and education and enforcement strategies that can enhance the safety awareness of bicyclists and reduce their crash risk in the long run.
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