Dynamics of Australia's LNG export performance: A modified constant market shares analysis

With continuous growth, the global LNG market is becoming increasingly competitive over time, and Australia is at the forefront. This paper makes the first attempt to analyse the dynamics of Australia's LNG export performance, using an improved Constant Market Share (CMS) model and UN Comtrade LNG trade data in four sub-periods spanning 1989 to 2017. It reveals that apart from the aggregate unfavourable Market Effect and favourable Adaptation Effect, the Competitiveness Effect has contributed the most to Australia's LNG export performance over the past three decades, particularly in Australia's existing LNG markets. A further breakdown of Australia's Competitiveness Effect quantifies the direct bilateral competition between Australia and its rivals. The results reveal that Australian LNG export performance faces challenges in the future. This study suggests that Australian LNG exporters must keep their pace with the new players, expand existing markets, and prepare for the impacts of changes in the pricing mechanism. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.