An alternative method for analyzing dimensional interactions of urban carrying capacity: Case study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Most previous studies on comprehensive urban carrying capacity (UCC) have estimated UCC levels and comparatively analyzed the heterogeneity of the sample cities. Very few researchers have focused on the interaction effects between different categories of UCC based on synergetic theory. To fill this gap, we constructed a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to study 11 cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2016. The ultimate goal of this study is to improve comprehensive UCC levels by forming a virtuous circle of mutual reinforcement between the four types of carrying capacity. To do so, the interaction mechanisms of the four subsystems are examined. Results show that (a) only transportation and social carrying capacity had causality between them as per the Granger causality test; (b) all four carrying capacities can support themselves (i.e., the development of economic conditions helps to improve social carrying capacity and the improvement of social carrying capacity helps to improve environmental carrying capacity); and (c) both the four carrying capacities are mostly affected by their own fluctuations. Overall transportation carrying capacity is the most important driving force among the four subsystems that interact with each other; followed by economic carrying capacity, which has promotion effect on the social and environmental aspects; social carrying capacity poses impact on the environmental dimension but not vice versa. Policy suggestions and future research directions are highlighted in the final section.