期刊
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF NATURAL PHENOMENA
卷 15, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
EDP SCIENCES S A
DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2020035
关键词
COVID-19; epidemic modeling; confinement; age-structured systems; optimal control
类别
资金
- Labex Mathematiques Hadamard
- iCODE (IDEX Paris-Saclay)
We propose a model for the COVID-19 epidemic where the population is partitioned into classes corresponding to ages (that remain constant during the epidemic). The main feature is to take into account the infection age of the infected population. This allows to better simulate the infection propagation that crucially depend on the infection age. We discuss how to estimate the coefficients from data available in the future, and introduce a confinement variable as control. The cost function is a compromise between a confinement term, the hospitalization peak and the death toll. Our numerical experiments allow to evaluate the interest of confinement varying with age classes.
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