Developing a machine learning based cotton yield estimation framework using multi-temporal UAS data

In this research a machine learning framework was developed for cotton yield estimation using multi-temporal remote sensing data collected from unmanned aircraft system (UAS). The proposed machine learning model was based on an artificial neural network (ANN) and used three types of crop features derived from UAS data to predict the yield, namely; multi-temporal features including canopy cover, canopy height, canopy volume, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), excessive greenness index (ExG); non-temporal features including cotton boll count, boll size and boll volume, and irrigation status as a qualitative feature. The model provided low residual values with predicted yield values close to the observed yield values (R-2 similar to 0.9). ANN model performance was compared with support vector regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR). Comparison results revealed that ANN model outperforms SVR and RFR. Additionally, redundant features were removed using correlation analysis, and an optimal subset of features was obtained that included canopy volume, ExG, boll count, boll volume and irrigation status. Moreover, the relative significance of each feature in the optimal input feature subset was determined using sensitivity analysis. It was found that canopy volume and ExG contributed around 50% towards the corresponding yield. Finally, further analysis was performed to investigate how early in the growing season the model can accurately predict yield. It was observed that even at 70 days after planting the model predicted yield with reasonable accuracy (R-2 of 0.72 over test set). This study revealed that UAS derived multi-temporal data along with non-temporal and qualitative data can be combined within a machine learning framework to provide a reliable estimation of crop yield and provide effective understanding for crop management.