Characterizing recent bark beetle-caused tree mortality in the western United States from aerial surveys

Bark beetle (Curculionidae, Scolytinae) outbreaks have been extensive and severe across the western United States in recent decades, and assessments of tree mortality are critical for documenting patterns and increasing understanding of drivers and impacts. Aerial surveys have produced a rich data set that includes damage severity, year and location of damage, and beetle and tree species. Here we update a data set of bark beetle-caused tree mortality for the western United States to include five additional years (now 1997-2018) and use these data to characterize recent outbreaks and compare with earlier tree mortality. We estimated mortality area (MA), the canopy area of beetle-killed trees and a more accurate representation of outbreak impacts than affected area, as well as the number of killed trees. Recently, the US Forest Service changed survey approaches, creating challenges for linking observations from the old and new approaches. We compared four methods to harmonize these approaches to produce consistent time series of tree mortality. General similarity of MA occurred in several methods; however, the range of results indicated some uncertainty. Based on limited analyses and a desire to be conservative in damage estimates, we suggest that the FHPR1-R4 method, which produced intermediate mortality among the methods, is most realistic for representing tree mortality from bark beetles. Using this recommended method, we found that bark beetles caused 4.3 Mha of MA and 3.8x10(9) killed trees when summed across space, time, and bark beetle/host combination (range among methods: 1.5-7.4 Mha and 1.2-6.3 x 10(9) killed trees). This total mortality area was 4.7% of forest area in the western United States; 28% of this mortality occurred in 2013-2018. Annual tree mortality remained high recently, with values comparable to earlier years, and was a result of combinations of outbreaks of different beetle species in different regions with different timing. Bark beetles continue to be agents of significant forest disturbance in the western United States. Given a range of mortality area results from the different methods, we encourage further evaluation of estimates using independent observations.