期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 117, 期 46, 页码 29190-29201出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2000429117
关键词
bats; henipavirus; Nipah virus; Pteropus; disease modeling
资金
- NIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) [AI067549, U01AI153420, AI054715]
- NIH Fogarty International Center Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases (EEID) Award [R01 TW005869]
- NSF-NIH EEID Award [EF-0914866]
- NIH NIAID Award [U19 AI109761]
- US Agency for International Development PEER Award [226]
- US Agency for International Development Emerging Pandemic Threats: PREDICT Program
- Government of Bangladesh
- Government of Canada
- Government of Sweden
- Government of United Kingdom
Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging bat-borne zoonotic virus that causes near-annual outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in South Asia- one of the most populous regions on Earth. In Bangladesh, infec-tion occurs when people drink date-palm sap contaminated with bat excreta. Outbreaks are sporadic, and the influence of viral dynamics in bats on their temporal and spatial distribution is poorly understood. We analyzed data on host ecology, molecular epidemiology, serological dynamics, and viral genetics to characterize spatiotemporal patterns of NiV dynamics in its wildlife reservoir, Pteropus medius bats, in Bangladesh. We found that NiV transmission occurred throughout the country and throughout the year. Model results indicated that local transmission dynamics were modulated by density-dependent transmission, acquired immunity that is lost over time, and recrudescence. Increased transmission followed multiyear periods of declining seroprevalence due to bat population turnover and individual loss of humoral immunity. Individual bats had smaller host ranges than other Pteropus species (spp.), although movement data and the discovery of a Malaysiaclade NiV strain in eastern Bangladesh suggest connectivity with bats east of Bangladesh. These data suggest that discrete multi annual local epizootics in bat populations contribute to the sporadic nature of NiV outbreaks in South Asia. At the same time, the broad spatial and temporal extent of NiV transmission, including the recent outbreak in Kerala, India, highlights the continued risk of spillover to humans wherever they may interact with pteropid bats and the importance of limiting opportunities for spillover throughout Pteropus's range.
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