A Decision-Tree Analysis of the Relationship between Social Development and Homicide Rates

Using the minimum list of indicators for measuring the social development proposed by the United Nations, this work identifies cross-national indicators of homicide by analyzing socio-economic profiles of 202 countries. Both a correlation analysis and a decision-tree analysis indicate that countries with a relatively low homicide rate are characterized by a high life expectancy of women at birth and a very low adolescent fertility rate, while countries with a relatively high homicide rate are characterized by a low to medium life expectancy of women at birth, a high women-to-men ratio, and a high women's share of adults with HIV/AIDS. The significance of this work stems from identifying cross-national indicators of homicide that can be used to assist policymakers in designing public policies aimed at reducing homicide rates by improving social indicators.