The first feasible step towards clean heating transition in urban agglomeration: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Promoting cleaner heating is one of the key pathways towards future energy transition. One promising solution is to implement large-scale heat pumps into the existing heat supply system. This paper aims to investigate whether the integration of large-scale heat pumps can be the first feasible step for cities towards clean heating transition. As opposed to the traditional way of conducting independent energy planning within a single city/region, this paper presents a novel approach of employing integrated planning for the multiple neighboring regions to explore the advantages of interregional energy collaboration. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration is taken as a case study, which is the most polluted region in China caused by the coal-based heating system. By implementing a series of simulations for the heating and power systems in the EnergyPLAN tool for six predesigned future scenarios which consider different planning strategies and analysis focuses, this paper analyzes to what extent heat pumps can help to achieve energy and environmental improvement for the whole BTH region by 2030 while ensuring economic feasibility. This is done by creating three independent models for respective Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, and one integrated model for the whole BTH region. The results suggest that when guaranteeing economic feasibility, the integration of large-scale heat pumps can potentially result in at least 9.5% energy saving and 9.28% reduced CO2 emission compared to the baseline. The integrated planning strategy can furthermore be more efficient in the urban agglomeration, which reduces 1.92% and 2.27% more energy and emissions in 2030 compared to the independent planning results. Based on cost analysis, the maximum economic feasible potential of heat pump penetration is identified as well. This paper can provide references for policymakers in the BTH region and the rest of Northern China, as well as present a principle of energy planning for cities on a general level.