Thermal effects vary predictably across levels of organization: empirical results and theoretical basis

Thermal performance curves have provided a common framework to study the impact of temperature in biological systems. However, few generalities have emerged to date. Here, we combine an experimental approach with theoretical analyses to demonstrate that performance curves are expected to vary predictably with the levels of biological organization. We measured rates of enzymatic reactions, organismal performance and population viability in Drosophila acclimated to different thermal conditions and show that performance curves become narrower with thermal optima shifting towards lower temperatures at higher levels or organization. We then explain these results on theoretical grounds, showing that this pattern reflects the cumulative impact of asymmetric thermal effects that piles up with complexity. These results and the proposed framework are important to understand how organisms, populations and ecological communities might respond to changing thermal conditions.