期刊
ENTROPY
卷 22, 期 11, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/e22111228
关键词
earthquakes; avalanches; natural time analysis; Olami-Feder-Christensen model; nowcasting earthquakes
资金
- National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT) of Mexico (CVU) [376516]
Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.
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