期刊
AIMS PUBLIC HEALTH
卷 7, 期 4, 页码 828-843出版社
AMER INST MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES-AIMS
DOI: 10.3934/publichealth.2020064
关键词
COVID-19 dynamics; prediction; Generalized Richards Model (GRM); projected end date; Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)
资金
- Scintific Research Deanship at University of Ha'il, Saudi Arabia [COVID-1936]
COVID-19 pandemic is spreading around the world becoming thus a serious concern for health, economic and social systems worldwide. In such situation, predicting as accurately as possible the future dynamics of the virus is a challenging problem for scientists and decision-makers. In this paper, four phenomenological epidemic models as well as Suspected-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model are investigated for predicting the cumulative number of infected cases in Saudi Arabia in addition to the probable end-date of the outbreak. The prediction problem is formulated as an optimization framework and solved using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. The Generalized Richards Model (GRM) has been found to be the best one in achieving two objectives: first, fitting the collected data (covering 223 days between March 2nd and October 10, 2020) with the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 3.2889%), the highest coefficient of determination (R-2 = 0.9953) and the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE = 8827); and second, predicting a probable end date found to be around the end of December 2020 with a projected number of 378,299 at the end of the outbreak.The obtained results may help the decision-makers to take suitable decisions related to the pandemic mitigation and containment and provide clear understanding of the virus dynamics in Saudi Arabia.
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