Ecosystem services at risk: integrating spatiotemporal dynamics of supply and demand to promote long-term provision

Ecosystem services (ESs)-the benefits provided to people by nature-are fundamental to human well-being. The sustainable provision of such services is constrained by both spatial and temporal dynamics of ES supply (S) and demand (D), but the temporal aspect is usually disregarded despite its high relevance in sustainability analyses. Here, we propose a conceptual framework integrating both spatial and temporal dynamics of S and D to forecast trends in ES provision. In this framework, we identify three temporal trends of ES threat: steady undersupply (S decreases through time, and D exceeds it), cyclical highly variable undersupply (S is cyclical through time, and D exceeds S periodically), and stochastic undersupply (unpredictable events might change either S or D). Once the type of S/D trend is identified, landscape management strategies can be designed accordingly to increase flow between S and D areas, reducing the risk of ES extirpation over time.