Aftershocks are fluid-driven and decay rates controlled by permeability dynamics

One aspect of earthquake physics not adequately addressed is why some earthquakes generate thousands of aftershocks while other earthquakes generate few, if any, aftershocks. It also remains unknown why aftershock rates decay as similar to 1/time. Here, I show that these two are linked, with a dearth of aftershocks reflecting the absence of high-pressure fluid sources at depth, while rich and long-lasting aftershock sequences reflect tapping high-pressure fluid reservoirs that drive aftershock sequences. Using a physical model that captures the dominant aspects of permeability dynamics in the crust, I show that the model generates superior fits to observations than widely used empirical fits such as the Omori-Utsu Law, and find a functional relationship between aftershock decay rates and the tectonic ability to heal the co- and post-seismically generated fracture networks. These results have far-reaching implications, and can help interpret other observations such as seismic velocity recovery, attenuation, and migration.