Effect of Complex Road Networks on Intensive Land Use in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

Coupled with rapid urbanization and urban expansion, the spatial relationship between transportation development and land use has gained growing interest among researchers and policy makers. In this paper, a complex network model and land use intensity assessment were integrated into a spatial econometric model to explore the spatial spillover effect of the road network on intensive land use patterns in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration. First, population density, point of interest (POI) density, and aggregation index were selected to measure land use intensity from social, physical, and ecological aspects. Then, the indicator of average degree (i.e., connections between counties) was used to measure the characteristics of the road network. Under the hypothesis that the road network functions in shaping land use patterns, a spatial econometric model with the road network embedded spatial weight matrix was established. Our results revealed that, while the land use intensity in the BTH urban agglomeration increased from 2010 to 2015, the road network became increasingly complex with greater spatial heterogeneity. The spatial lag coefficients of land use intensity were positively significant in both years and showed a declining trend. The spatially lagged effects of sector structure, fixed asset investment, and consumption were also significant in most of our spatial econometric models, and their contributions to the total spillover effect increased from 2010 to 2015. This study contributes to the literature by providing an innovative quantitative method to analyze the spatial spillover effect of the road network on intensive land use. We suggest that the spatial spillover effect of the road network could be strengthened in the urban-rural interface areas by improving accessibility and promoting population, resource, and technology flows.