期刊
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
卷 62, 期 11, 页码 1705-1713出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2017.1356926
关键词
Uncertainty; socio-hydrology; perceptual model; flood risk; change analysis
资金
- Swedish Research Council Formas (Svenska Forskningsraadet Formas) [942-2015-321]
- European Union [329762]
- Natural Environment Research Council, NERC [NE/L010399/1]
- IRI THESys by the German Excellence Initiative
- NERC [NE/J017299/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis.Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources - and different perceptions thereof - explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.
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