期刊
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
卷 62, 期 10, 页码 1603-1617出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2017.1328558
关键词
bivariate flood frequency analysis; copula; seasonal maxima distributions; product model of seasonal maxima distributions
资金
- Polish-Norwegian Research Program, within Polish-Norwegian project Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes (CHIHE) [PolNor/196243/80/2013]
If themaximum annual peak flow series are a mixture of summer and winter flows, a seasonal approach to flood frequency analysis is necessary. While considering seasonal maxima as mutually independent events, the annual maxima distribution is defined as the product of seasonal distributions. However, if the independency assumption does not hold, a bivariate approach with dependent margins should be applied, i.e. the copula approach. The impact of dependency on design quantiles is investigated here in the context of the Frechet-Hoeffding inequality defining copula bounds and the definition of dependency. The results of the two approaches are compared using six catchments in the San River basin, where in four cases the dependency of seasonal maxima has been identified as positive significant and no strong dominance of any one season is observed. The product model leads to higher estimates of design quantiles than do models where the dependency is taken into account and, therefore, is safe.
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