期刊
GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
卷 153, 期 -, 页码 16-34出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.04.008
关键词
West Antarctic Ice Sheet; Thwaites Glacier; Climate change; Sea-level rise; Ice-ocean interaction; Marine ice sheet instability
资金
- National Science Foundation
- NASA
- U.S. National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine
- U.K. National Environmental Research Council
- National Science Foundation [NSF-PLR 1340261, NSF-PLR 1341695, NSF-PLR 1649109]
- NASA [NNX16AN60G]
- NERC [NE/J005754/1, bas0100034] Funding Source: UKRI
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [1443604, 1205196] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
- Directorate For Geosciences [1443443] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/J005754/1, bas0100034] Funding Source: researchfish
- NASA [898769, NNX16AN60G] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
Constraining how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will change in the coming decades has recently been identified as the highest priority in Antarctic research (National Academies, 2015). Here we review recent research on WAIS and outline further scientific objectives for the area now identified as the most likely to undergo near-term significant change: Thwaites Glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea. Multiple lines of evidence point to an ongoing rapid loss of ice in this region in response to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Models of the ice sheet's dynamic behavior indicate a potential for greatly accelerated ice loss as ocean-driven melting at the Thwaites Glacier grounding zone and nearby areas leads to thinning, faster flow, and retreat. A complete retreat of the Thwaites Glacier basin would raise global sea level by more than three meters by entraining ice from adjacent catchments. This scenario could occur over the next few centuries, and faster ice loss could occur through processes omitted from most ice flow models such as hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, which have been observed in recent rapid ice retreats elsewhere. Increased basal melt at the grounding zone and increased potential for hydrofracture due to enhanced surface melt could initiate a more rapid collapse of Thwaites Glacier within the next few decades.
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