期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 44, 期 16, 页码 8557-8566出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074188
关键词
European precipitation; climate variability and change; British Isles
资金
- U.S. DOE, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment program
- U.S. DOE, Office of Biological and Environmental Research
- NOAA Climate Program Office
- U.S. National Science Foundation [AGS-1355339]
- NASA [NNX13AM59G]
- Weston Howland Jr. Postdoctoral Scholarship
- Investment in Science Fund
- NASA [469332, NNX13AM59G] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1355339] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.
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