Can Fiscal Paths Be Sustainable? Evidence from Poland

This article investigates the degree of long-term fiscal sustainability in Poland through two hypotheses: (I) an inability to generate primary surpluses and a significant grow of public debt volumes have hindered past attainment of fiscal sustainability and (II) the recurring problems with generating primary surpluses will block future fiscal sustainability. The research period covers yearly observations between 1999-2017, as well as forecasts for 2018-2028, which include estimations for different possible fiscal paths in Poland. The analysis are based on two different methods, both deriving from the idea of intertemporal budget constraint: primary gap indicator and Ponzi scheme estimations.

Automated summary

The article investigates the long-term fiscal sustainability in Poland through two hypotheses, focusing on the inability to generate primary surpluses and the issue of growing public debt volumes hindering past and future fiscal sustainability. The analysis is based on observations from 1999-2017 and forecasts for 2018-2028, utilizing two methods derived from the intertemporal budget constraint concept: primary gap indicator and Ponzi scheme estimations.