期刊
EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS
卷 61, 期 1, 页码 279-307出版社
PHYSICA-VERLAG GMBH & CO
DOI: 10.1007/s00181-020-01861-z
关键词
The BRI; Steel consumption forecast; Steel overcapacity; Dynamic model averaging; Dynamic model selection
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71672106]
This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China's steel overcapacity issue. Results show that the initiative helps to resolve China's steel overcapacity, and it is predicted that by the end of 2020, China's crude steel production will decrease to between 32.1 and 58 million tons.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an important long-term development plan in China. The initiative aims at expanding international markets and resolving the domestic steel overcapacity. This paper applies the dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection estimation techniques to investigate the determinants for steel consumption, forecast steel consumption, and explore whether the BRI can resolve the steel overcapacity in China. In terms of the in-sample regression analysis, the results show that the demand of countries along the BRI is significantly and positively related to the steel consumption in China. In the out-of-sample predictability after 2014, the BRI would gradually resolve the steel overcapacity in China. It is predicted that by the end of 2020, China will be left with between only 32.1 and 58 million tons of crude steel.
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