Democratic transition, political risk, economic instability, and tourist inflows: The case of Tunisia

This article assesses the effect of the political risk and economic instability on the tourist arrivals in Tunisia using various wavelet methods. Our findings reveal a substantial effect of political risk over the short and medium terms, while the risk of economic effect is more perceptible over the long run. These outcomes are robust when using standard time series modeling. Terrorist incidents and political uneasiness increase the perception of risk and affect the tourism inflows over the short run. Governments are invited to indorse security and tourism safety because if not, the tourism demand will impede the economic growth over the long run.

Automated summary

This study found that political risk has a significant impact on tourist arrivals in Tunisia in the short and medium terms, while economic risk is more pronounced in the long term. It is important for governments to prioritize security and tourism safety to prevent long-term hindrance to economic growth.