期刊
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
卷 35, 期 6, 页码 1273-1291出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01920-y
关键词
Multifactor-induced landslide; Displacement prediction; Water cycle algorithm; BP neural network; Dynamic prediction model
类别
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41902266]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2015XKMS035]
In this paper, a new WCA-BPNN model was established to predict landslide displacement, considering long-term creep effect and short-term acceleration effect of climate, which has faster convergence speed and higher prediction accuracy than the traditional BPNN model.
The landslide caused a huge disaster to the living environment and seriously threatened the lives and property safety of nearby residents. Assess or predict landslide-susceptible the landslide displacement through monitoring are great beneficial to guide landslide control and mitigate these hazards by taking appropriate preparatory measures. In this paper, a new water cycle algorithm optimization BP neural network (BPNN) dynamic prediction model (WCA-BPNN) was established to make up for the shortcoming of BPNN convergence speed. A typical step-wise landslide--Langshuwan Landslide happened in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of China is taken as a case, and the displacement monitoring data of 4 years was used for time series analysis and modeling. The long-term creep effect of the landslide and the short-term acceleration effect of the climate are considered in the model, and the accumulative displacement is divided into two kinds of trend displacement and periodic displacement. The key influencing factors of landslide periodic displacement were screened by gray relational grade analysis method, and then used as learning data. In addition to comparing the predicted value of the model with the measured value, it also compares the accuracy of the three models of BPNN, support vector machine, extreme learning machine under the training conditions of the same learning data set. The results show that the WAC-BPNN model has faster convergence speed and higher prediction accuracy than the traditional BPNN model, and it is also the most accurate of the four models.
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