National operating volume for primary hip and knee arthroplasty in the COVID-19 era: a study utilizing the Scottish arthroplasty project dataset

Aims The COVID-19 pandemic led to a national suspension of non-urgent elective hip and knee arthroplasty. The study aims to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) volume in Scotland. Secondary objectives are to measure the success of restarting elective services and model the time required to bridge the gap left by the first period of suspension. Methods A retrospective observational study using the Scottish Arthroplasty Project dataset. All patients undergoing elective THAs and TKAs during the period 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2020 were included. A negative binomial regression model using historical case-volume and mid-year population estimates was built to project the future case-volume of THA and TKA in Scotland. The median monthly case volume was calculated for the period 2008 to 2019 (baseline) and compared to the actual monthly case volume for 2020. The time taken to eliminate the deficit was calculated based upon the projected monthly workload and with a potential workload between 100% to 120% of baseline. Results Compared to the period 2008 to 2019, primary TKA and THA volume fell by 61.1% and 53.6%, respectively. Since restarting elective services, Scottish hospitals have achieved approximately 40% to 50% of baseline monthly activity. With no changes in current workload, by 2021 there would be a reduction of 9,180 and 10,170 for THA and TKA, respectively. Conversely, working at 120% baseline monthly output, it would take over four years to eliminate the deficit for both TKA and THA. Conclusion This national study demonstrates the significant impact that COVID-19 pandemic has had on overall THA and TKA volume. In the six months after resuming elective services, Scottish hospitals averaged less than 50% normal monthly output. Loss of operating capacity will increase treatment delays and likely worsen overall morbidity.

Automated summary

This study measured the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) volume in Scotland, finding a significant reduction in surgeries compared to the previous years. Since restarting elective services, Scottish hospitals have only achieved around 40% to 50% of their normal monthly output. Projections show that, without an increase in workload, there will be a significant reduction in THA and TKA surgeries by 2021.