Curvature tension: Evidence for a closed universe

The curvature parameter tension between Planck 2018, cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing, and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data is measured using the suspiciousness statistic to be 2.5-3 sigma. Conclusions regarding the spatial curvature of the Universe which stem from the combination of these data should therefore be viewed with suspicion. Without CMB lensing or BAO, Planck 2018 has a moderate preference for closed universes, with Bayesian betting odds of over 50:1 against a flat universe and over 2000:1 against an open universe.

Automated summary

The tension in the curvature parameter measured between Planck 2018, cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing, and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data is 2.5-3 sigma using the suspiciousness statistic. Conclusions about the spatial curvature of the Universe from these data should be viewed with suspicion. Without CMB lensing or BAO, Planck 2018 has a moderate preference for closed universes.