4.6 Article

Land subsidence due to groundwater pumping: hazard probability assessment through the combination of Bayesian model and fuzzy set theory

期刊

NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
卷 21, 期 2, 页码 823-835

出版社

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/nhes-21-823-2021

关键词

-

资金

  1. National Natural Science Foundation of China [41130744, 41201420]
  2. Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality [8202008]
  3. Capacity Building for Sci-Tech Innovation-Fundamental Scientific Research Funds [025195305000/191]

向作者/读者索取更多资源

The study proposes a method that integrates fuzzy set theory and weighted Bayesian model to evaluate the hazard probability of land subsidence in Beijing. Results show that groundwater overpumping leads to high land subsidence hazard probabilities in the Chaobai River alluvial fan area, but the overall hazard probability decreased due to lower rates of groundwater level decrease. This study provides useful insights for decision makers in selecting different approaches for land subsidence prevention.
Land subsidence caused by groundwater overpumping threatens the sustainable development in Beijing. Hazard assessments of land subsidence can provide early warning information to improve prevention measures. However, uncertainty and fuzziness are the major issues during hazard assessments of land subsidence. We propose a method that integrates fuzzy set theory and weighted Bayesian model (FWBM) to evaluate the hazard probability of land subsidence measured by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology. The model is structured as a directed acyclic graph. The hazard probability distribution of each factor triggering land subsidence is determined using Bayes' theorem. Fuzzification of the factor significance reduces the ambiguity of the relationship between the factors and subsidence. The probability of land subsidence hazard under multiple factors is then calculated with the FWBM. The subsidence time series obtained by InSAR is used to infer the updated posterior probability. The upper and middle parts of the Chaobai River alluvial fan are taken as a case-study site, which locates the first large-scale emergency groundwater resource region in the Beijing plain. The results show that rates of groundwater level decrease more than 1 m yr(-1) in the confined and unconfined aquifers, with cumulative thicknesses of the compressible sediments between 160 and 170 m and Quaternary thicknesses between 400 and 500 m, yielding maximum hazard probabilities of 0.65, 0.68, 0.32, and 0.35, respectively. The overall hazard probability of land subsidence in the study area decreased from 51.3 % to 28.3 % between 2003 and 2017 due to lower rates of ground-water level decrease. This study provides useful insights for decision makers to select different approaches for land subsidence prevention.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.6
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

暂无数据
暂无数据