Estimating Mill Residue Surplus in Canada: A Spatial Forest Fiber Cascade Modeling Approach

The potential development of a Canadian forest-based bioeconomy requires an assessment of both fiber availability and associated marginal supply costs. To a large extent, the bioeconomy is expected to rely on wood fiber made available through primary products, sawnwood, and pulp production processing streams. Therefore, it is important to understand the regional wood fiber flows and mill residue availability through various processing streams. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit Forest Fiber Cascade Model (FCM) to estimate regional fiber flows and availability of untapped residue surplus. The FCM was calibrated to 2013 production levels, and we evaluated the wood fiber cascade through existing forest industry in Canada. The results show that, under current conditions, there is limited availability of surplus mill residues in Canada, especially in the Eastern provinces. It is therefore critical to consider the impacts on regional fiber flows and feedstock availability to the secondary industries when designing feedstock supply strategies and policies for the emerging forest-based industries.