Why Parties Displace Their Voters: Gentrification, Coalitional Change, and the Demise of Public Housing

Across advanced economies, affordable housing shortages are pushing low-income voters out of cities. Left governments frequently exacerbate these shortages by eliminating public housing. Why does the Left pursue policies that displace its voters? We argue that the Left's long-term rebalancing towards the middle class and away from an increasingly stigmatized underclass has significantly attenuated the trade-offs inherent in reducing affordable housing. Focusing on the UK, we demonstrate that by alienating low-income voters politically and reshuffling them across districts, housing crises have significant costs for Labour. Yet, drawing on interviews, we show that displacement is nonetheless compatible with electoral interests: the displaced make room for richer voters whom politicians believe will also support Labour. A quantitative analysis of Greater London's 32 local authorities and 624 wards further documents trends in line with coalitional rebalancing. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that electoral foundations are key to understanding housing crises and gentrification.

Automated summary

Affordable housing shortages are displacing low-income voters from cities, exacerbated by left governments eliminating public housing. The Left's shift towards the middle class and away from stigmatized underclass has reduced trade-offs in reducing affordable housing. Despite political costs, displacement is seen as compatible with electoral interests as it makes room for richer voters who are believed to support the Labour party.