4.8 Review

Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

相关参考文献

注意:仅列出部分参考文献,下载原文获取全部文献信息。
Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Continuous data assimilation for global numerical weather prediction

P. Lean et al.

Summary: The new ECMWF incremental 4D-Var data assimilation system configuration utilizes near-continuous stream of incoming observations, resulting in comparable analysis quality to traditional configurations and better performance in real-time forecasting applications. Continuous DA framework improved forecast accuracy by 2-3%, equivalent to 2-3 hours of additional predictive skill.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2021)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Atlantic and Pacific tropics connected by mutually interactive decadal-timescale processes

Gerald A. Meehl et al.

Summary: Model experiments show a weak opposite-sign SST response in the tropical Pacific when observed SSTs are specified in the Atlantic, and a weak same-sign response in the tropical Atlantic when observed SSTs are specified in the tropical Pacific. Net surface heat flux in the Atlantic and ocean dynamics in the Pacific play contrasting roles in the ocean response to specified SSTs in the respective basins. Processes in the Pacific and Atlantic are sequentially interactive through the atmospheric Walker circulation for the Atlantic response to the Pacific, with contributions from midlatitude teleconnections.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A study of the effects of westerly wind bursts on ENSO based on CESM

Xiaoxiao Tan et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

How much of monthly mean precipitation variability over global land is associated with SST anomalies?

Zeng-Zhen Hu et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Enhanced El Nino-Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades

Pamela R. Grothe et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Forecasts of Opportunity Opening Windows of Skill, Subseasonal and Beyond

[Anonymous]

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill

J. C. Acosta Navarro et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Climate Model State Estimation Using Variants of EnKF Coupled Data Assimilation

Paul A. Sandery et al.

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (2020)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations

Michael E. Mann et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts

Lauriane Batte et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Coupled data assimilation and parameter estimation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: a review

Shaoqing Zhang et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives

John T. Fasullo et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2020)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium

Nerilie J. Abram et al.

NATURE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Vertical Structure of the Upper-Indian Ocean Thermal Variability

Yuanlong Li et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

Panos J. Athanasiadis et al.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2020)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

D. M. Smith et al.

NATURE (2020)

Review Geography, Physical

Palaeoclimate perspectives on the Indian Ocean Dipole

Nerilie J. Abram et al.

QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS (2020)

Article Geography, Physical

Is there a low-frequency bias in multiproxy reconstructions of tropical pacific SST variability?

Garrison Loope et al.

QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Skillful seasonal prediction of key carbon cycle components: NPP and fire risk

Philip E. Bett et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Keeping pace with marine heatwaves

Neil J. Holbrook et al.

NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6

Flavio Lehner et al.

EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

Annarita Mariotti et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill

Michael J. DeFlorio et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions

Hong-Li Ren et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Tropical Indian Ocean decadal sea level response to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation forcing

J. S. Deepa et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation reconstructed from trans-Pacific tree rings: 1350-2004 CE

Brendan M. Buckley et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

WaxPSM: A Forward Model of Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotope Ratios to Bridge Proxy and Model Estimates of Past Climate

Bronwen Konecky et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Reconciling roles of sulphate aerosol forcing and internal variability in Atlantic multidecadal climate changes

Masahiro Watanabe et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Nino events in recent decades relative to past centuries

Mandy B. Freund et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2019)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability

Mohammad Hadi Bordbar et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model

Nathan J. L. Lenssen et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2019)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Predicting the variable ocean carbon sink

H. Li et al.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

Kathy Pegion et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The Signal-to-Noise Paradox for Interannual Surface Atmospheric Temperature Predictions

F. Sevellec et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era

Raphael Neukom et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Assimilation of SMOS brightness temperatures in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System

J. Munoz-Sabater et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2019)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model

Jong-Yeon Park et al.

SCIENCE (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

On the Link between Summer Dry Bias over the US Great Plains and Seasonal Temperature Prediction Skill in a Dynamical Forecast System

Constantin Ardilouze et al.

WEATHER AND FORECASTING (2019)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Predictability of US West Coast Ocean Temperatures is not solely due to ENSO

Antonietta Capotondi et al.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Climate-mode initialization for decadal climate predictions

Iuliia Polkova et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales

Lorenzo Zampieri et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Deep learning for multi-year ENSO forecasts

Yoo-Geun Ham et al.

NATURE (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector

Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Australian hot and dry extremes induced by weakenings of the stratospheric polar vortex

Eun-Pa Lim et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity by S2S and NMME Models

Cheng Zheng et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A Stochastic Representation of Subgrid Uncertainty for Dynamical Core Development

Aneesh Subramanian et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand

H. E. Thornton et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system

Nicole S. Lovenduski et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

Antje Weisheimer et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2019)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016

Gerald A. Meehl et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Yochanan Kushnir et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2019)

Review Multidisciplinary Sciences

Towards reliable Arctic sea ice prediction using multivariate data assimilation

Jiping Liu et al.

SCIENCE BULLETIN (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Impact of Ocean and Sea Ice Initialisation On Seasonal Prediction Skill in the Arctic

M. Kimmritz et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6)

A. Gettelman et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Insignificant QBO-MJO Prediction Skill Relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal Reforecasts

Hyemi Kim et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2019)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO: a Review

Dillon J. Amaya

CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

D. M. Smith et al.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities

Christophe Cassou et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

PREDICTING NEAR-TERM CHANGES IN THE EARTH SYSTEM A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model

S. G. Yeager et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Improved Teleconnection-Based Dynamical Seasonal Predictions of Boreal Winter

Mikhail Dobrynin et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

Jong-Yeon Park et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake

Roland Seferian et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

Jiabao Wang et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

Jianjun Yin et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

Nick Dunstone et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Toward the Application of Decadal Climate Predictions

Erin Towler et al.

JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Unraveling Causes for the Changing Behavior of the Tropical Indian Ocean in the Past Few Decades

Lei Zhang et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Nature of the Stochastic Wind Forcing of ENSO

Antonietta Capotondi et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2018)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

Sarah B. Kapnick et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A global coupled ensemble data assimilation system using the Community Earth System Model and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed

Alicia R. Karspeck et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2018)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Data Descriptor: A reconstruction of global hydroclimate and dynamical variables over the Common Era

Nathan J. Steiger et al.

SCIENTIFIC DATA (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

No Impact of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Early 21st Century Global Temperature Trends in a Large Initial-Condition Ensemble

Thomas Oudar et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales

Lorenzo Zampieri et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Review

Hyemi Kim et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Tropical Decadal Variability and the Rate of Arctic Sea Ice Decrease

Gerald A. Meehl et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

On the Harvest of Predictability From Land States in a Global Forecast Model

Paul A. Dirmeyer et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Cory F. Baggett et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

An extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2016: dynamics and predictability

Bo Lu et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2018)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Understanding the Recent Global Surface Warming Slowdown: A Review

Ka-Kit Tung et al.

CLIMATE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective

Ingo Richter et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2018)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science

Adam A. Scaife et al.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Mechanisms and Predictability of Pacific Decadal Variability

Zhengyu Liu et al.

CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events

Frederic Vitart et al.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2018)

Article Environmental Sciences

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Benjamin J. Henley et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The impact of the AMO on multidecadal ENSO variability

Aaron F. Z. Levine et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Symmetry of the Atlantic Nino mode

Joke F. Luebbecke et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Is El Nino really changing?

Antonietta Capotondi et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

A 2 Year Forecast for a 60-80% Chance of La Nina in 2017-2018

Pedro N. DiNezio et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Multidecadal Indian Ocean Variability Linked to the Pacific and Implications for Preconditioning Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Caroline C. Ummenhofer et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Stratospheric Control of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Seok-Woo Son et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

C. Kadow et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A new method for determining the optimal lagged ensemble

L. Trenary et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2017)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America

Yoshimitsu Chikamoto et al.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

What Caused the Global Surface Warming Hiatus of 1998-2013?

Shang-Ping Xie et al.

CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS (2017)

Article Geochemistry & Geophysics

Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere

A. A. Scaife et al.

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

North American rainfall and temperature prediction response to the diversity of ENSO

Johnna M. Infanti et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe

Chloe Prodhomme et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A coupled data assimilation system for climate reanalysis

Patrick Laloyaux et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

ADVANCING POLAR PREDICTION CAPABILITIES ON DAILY TO SEASONAL TIME SCALES

Thomas Jung et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods

Michael E. Mann et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Two centuries of coherent decadal climate variability across the Pacific North American region

S. C. Sanchez et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Modulation of the boreal wintertime Madden-Julian oscillation by the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

Changhyun Yoo et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Disruption to the U.K. Transport System

Erika J. Palin et al.

JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts in the North American Multimodel Ensemble: A Baseline Skill Assessment

Emily Becker et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited

Matthew Newman et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Representation of Snow in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part II: Potential Predictability and Hindcast Skill

Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso et al.

JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead

Nick Dunstone et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2016)

Article Environmental Sciences

Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown

Doug M. Smith et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2016)

Editorial Material Environmental Sciences

Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

John C. Fyfe et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Prediction and predictability of land and atmosphere initialized CCSM4 climate forecasts over North America

Johnna M. Infanti et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The lastmillennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results

Gregory J. Hakim et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

George J. Boer et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Understanding ENSO Diversity

Antonietta Capotondi et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2015)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Decadal increase in Ningaloo Nino since the late 1990s

Ming Feng et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2015)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024

Malte Thoma et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2015)

Article Marine & Freshwater Biology

Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future

Mark L. Wells et al.

HARMFUL ALGAE (2015)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Origin and Impact of Initialization Shocks in Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasts

David P. Mulholland et al.

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (2015)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus

Sang-Ki Lee et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2015)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

Helen V. McGregor et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2015)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Tropical sea surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives

Jessica E. Tierney et al.

PALEOCEANOGRAPHY (2015)

Review Oceanography

Seasonal sea surface temperature anomaly prediction for coastal ecosystems

Charles A. Stock et al.

PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY (2015)

Editorial Material Multidisciplinary Sciences

Response to Comment on Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

B. A. Steinman et al.

SCIENCE (2015)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating

Veronica Nieves et al.

SCIENCE (2015)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

Yoshimitsu Chikamoto et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2015)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

PRYSM: An open-source framework for PRoxY System Modeling, with applications to oxygen-isotope systems

S. Dee et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2015)

Article Oceanography

The impact of mean state errors on equatorial Atlantic interannual variability in a climate model

Hui Ding et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS (2015)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Early twentieth-century warming linked to tropical Pacific wind strength

Diane M. Thompson et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2015)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system

C. MacLachlan et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2015)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

K. D. Williams et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2015)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

INDIAN OCEAN DECADAL VARIABILITY A Review

Weiqing Han et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Attribution of SST variability in global oceans and the role of ENSO

Arun Kumar et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2

A. G. Marshall et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Naturally forced multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Matthew B. Menary et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2014)

Article Environmental Sciences

Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Nino-Southern Oscillation teleconnections

Amy H. Butler et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2014)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO

Michael E. Mann et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2014)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Optimal growth of Central and East Pacific ENSO events

Daniel J. Vimont et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2014)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales

Adam A. Scaife et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2014)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

A. A. Scaife et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The South Pacific Meridional Mode: A Mechanism for ENSO-like Variability

Honghai Zhang et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity

G. A. Vecchi et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Skillful Seasonal Prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic Ozone

William J. M. Seviour et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Pacific Meridional Mode as an ENSO Precursor and Predictor in the North American Multimodel Ensemble

Sarah M. Larson et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Predictability and Forecast Skill in NMME

Emily Becker et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications

The use of imprecise processing to improve accuracy in weather & climate prediction

Peter D. Dueben et al.

JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL PHYSICS (2014)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

A. Weisheimer et al.

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE (2014)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Roland Seferian et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2014)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation

James A. Anstey et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2014)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration

Xianyao Chen et al.

SCIENCE (2014)

Article Environmental Sciences

Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming

Gerald A. Meehl et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2014)

Article Environmental Sciences

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus

Matthew H. England et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WWBs, ENSO predictability, the spring barrier and extreme events

Hosmay Lopez et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

Doug M. Smith et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

Emily E. Riddle et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

Doug M. Smith et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2013)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The Pacific Meridional Mode as a trigger for ENSO in a high-resolution coupled model

Sarah Larson et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Continuum of Hydroclimate Variability in Western North America during the Last Millennium

Toby R. Ault et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST Variability over the Past Millennium. Part II: Reconstructions and Implications

Julien Emile-Geay et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium

Andrew P. Schurer et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Seasonal Predictability of the Southern Annular Mode due to Its Association with ENSO

Eun-Pa Lim et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2013)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

M. Sigmond et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2013)

Review Geography, Physical

Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology

M. N. Evans et al.

QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS (2013)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Highly Variable El Nino-Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene

Kim M. Cobb et al.

SCIENCE (2013)

Article Environmental Sciences

Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade

Virginie Guemas et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Effect of Realistic Soil Moisture Initialization on the Canadian CanCM3 Seasonal Forecast Model

Gordon Drewitt et al.

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN (2012)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

SKILL OF REAL-TIME SEASONAL ENSO MODEL PREDICTIONS DURING 2002-11 Is Our Capability Increasing?

Anthony G. Barnston et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2012)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The impact of model fidelity on seasonal predictive skill

V. V. Kharin et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2012)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models

Grant Branstator et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2012)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Impact of Land Surface and Atmospheric Initialization on Seasonal Forecasts with CCSM

Daniel A. Paolino et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2012)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Second Phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill

R. D. Koster et al.

JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY (2011)

Article Environmental Sciences

Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods

Gerald A. Meehl et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2011)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS

Suranjana Saha et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2010)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited

Clara Deser et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2010)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

THE POTENTIAL TO NARROW UNCERTAINTY IN REGIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS

Ed Hawkins et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2009)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

DECADAL PREDICTION Can It Be Skillful?

Gerald A. Meehl et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2009)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Impact of the QBO on surface winter climate

Andrew G. Marshall et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2009)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Multimodel Ensemble ENSO Prediction with CCSM and CFS

Ben P. Kirtman et al.

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (2009)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction

Linus Magnusson et al.

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY (2009)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts

T. N. Palmer et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2008)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

QBO influence on extratropical predictive skill

G. J. Boer et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2008)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change

E. Di Lorenzo et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2008)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

An asymmetric mode of tropical Indian Ocean rainfall variability in boreal spring

Renguang Wu et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2008)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Decadal modulations of the Indian Ocean dipole in the SINTEX-F1 coupled GCM

Tomoki Tozuka et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2007)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode

Harry H. Hendon et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2007)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Tropical Atlantic SST prediction with coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs

Timothy N. Stockdale et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2006)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The physical basis for predicting Atlantic sector seasonal-to-interannual climate variability

Yochanan Kushnir et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2006)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Climate fluctuations of tropical coupled systems - The role of ocean dynamics

P. Chang et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2006)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on atmospheric subseasonal variability

T Shinoda et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2005)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Effect of preconditioning on the extreme climate events in the tropical Indian Ocean

H Annamalai et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2005)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

JD Annan et al.

NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS (2005)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A singular vector perspective of 4D-Var: Filtering and interpolation

C Johnson et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2005)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation

RD Koster et al.

SCIENCE (2004)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical atmosphere-ocean variability

JCH Chiang et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2004)

Article Oceanography

Why are there Rossby wave maxima in the Pacific at 10°S and 13°N?

A Capotondi et al.

JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY (2003)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts

MP Baldwin et al.

SCIENCE (2003)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Variability of the Indian Ocean: Relation to monsoon and ENSO

V Krishnamurthy et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2003)