Student Performance in First-Year Math and Physics Courses as Predictor of Student Dropout in Engineering Programs

The dropout rate in higher education institutes has been the subject of constant discussion. This study investigates the dropout rates of engineering programs in the initial semesters, adjusting risk models to potential academic factors. The main subjects of mathematics and physics in the initial semesters are identified and ordered according to level of dropout risk, which can assist administrators in taking actions to improve student performance. The sample consists of 4,848 students in engineering programs at a federal university in Brazil. Failure levels reached 52.3% in first-semester courses and 57% in second-semester courses. The risk calculation identified the main courses that encourage dropout in engineering programs in the initial semesters. Analytical Geometry, Calculus I, Calculus II and General Physics I courses presented high risks for dropout for all the engineering programs. Students who studied analytical geometry showed that the risk of dropout as a result of failure in Calculus I decreased from 19.3% to 6.3%, and in General Physics I the risk decreased from 10.4% to 4.8%. This shows that improving performance in at least one course in the initial semester considerably reduces the rates of dropout from programs.

Automated summary

The study found that dropout rates in engineering programs in the initial semesters are influenced by mathematics and physics courses, and improving student performance can reduce dropout rates.