Natural disasters and analysts? earnings forecasts*

The effects of natural disasters on capital markets have been investigated by limited evidence even though these calamities bring considerable damages or loss of life. To fill this gap, we investigate the impacts of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, on security analysts? earnings forecasts for affected firms in China. We obtain three key findings. First, analysts? optimism significantly decreases for firms located in neighborhood areas. Second, earthquakes do not significantly affect firm earnings and stock returns, thereby indicating that post-earthquake analyst pessimism is not based on rational judgment. Third, media attention promotes irrational pessimism among analysts, and post-earthquake pessimism is a result of heuristics bias attributable to psychological shocks. However, analysts correct the bias after initial irrational forecasts. Taken together, our findings contribute to the broader psychology and economics literature on the effects of natural disasters on analyst forecasts.

Automated summary

Research shows that earthquakes have a significant impact on security analysts' earnings forecasts for affected firms in China, leading to decreased optimism. However, earthquakes do not significantly affect firm earnings and stock returns, and analysts' pessimism is not based on rational judgment, but rather influenced by media attention and psychological shocks. Analysts tend to correct bias after making initial irrational forecasts.