Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka

In response to an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within a cluster of Navy personnel in Sri Lanka commencing from 22nd April 2020, an aggressive outbreak management program was launched by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health. To predict the possible number of cases within the susceptible population under four social distancing scenarios, the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) was used. With increasing social distancing, the epidemiological curve flattened, and its peak shifted to the right. The observed or actually reported number of cases was above the projected number of cases at the onset; however, subsequently, it fell below all predicted trends. Predictive modelling is a useful tool for the control of outbreaks such as COVID-19 in a closed community.

Automated summary

In response to a cluster outbreak of COVID-19 among Navy personnel in Sri Lanka, the Ministry of Health initiated an aggressive outbreak management program using the CHIME model to predict case numbers under different social distancing scenarios. Increasing social distancing led to a flattening of the epidemiological curve and a delayed peak. While the actual case numbers initially exceeded projections, they later fell below all predicted trends. Predictive modelling is a useful tool for controlling outbreaks like COVID-19 in closed communities.