期刊
LAND
卷 10, 期 5, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/land10050528
关键词
land system; delineation; CLUMondo; scenarios; Hengduan Mountain region
资金
- National Social Science Foundation of China [18BJY086]
This study used the CLUMondo model to predict the trajectory of land system change in the Hengduan Mountain region for the years 2010-2030, revealing significant expansion of the forest system and intensive development of the grassland and cropland systems under different scenarios. The results demonstrate the impacts of ecological demands and conservation policies on land system changes in mountainous areas.
In the last few decades, land use/land cover (LULC) has changed significantly under the influence of local planning and policy implementation, and this has had a profound impact on the regional ecological environment. By taking the Hengduan Mountain region as the study area, this study considered the demands of various commodities and services and applied the CLUMondo model to predict the trajectory of change in the land system for the years 2010-2030. The results indicate that the forest system expands significantly in this time, while the grassland and cropland systems are projected to develop intensively under the three scenarios. The high demand for livestock products is the main cause of the intensification of the grassland system under the TREND scenario, the demand for forests leads to the expansion of the forest land system under the FOREST scenario, and the significant intensification of the cropland system under the CONSERVATION scenario is closely related to an increase in the area of ecological land. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the optimal management of land systems in other mountainous areas.
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