期刊
ONE EARTH
卷 4, 期 4, 页码 517-530出版社
CELL PRESS
DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.002
关键词
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资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [31570475]
- Tsinghua University-Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University Joint Scientific Research Fund [20193080033]
- National Key R&D Program of China [2017YFA0604404]
- China Scholarship Council
- Newton Fund through Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP Brazil)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [NE/R001812/1, NE/J010057/1]
- UK Natural Environment Research Council through The UK Earth System Modeling Project (UKESM) [NE/N017951/1]
- National Capability grant - Natural Environment Research Council
- National Science Foundation [MSB 1802453]
- NERC [NE/R001812/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Recent burned area has decreased, but future simulations predict an increase due to changing climate, rapid population density growth, and urbanization. Increases are especially notable at high latitudes, while urbanization limits the potential for dramatic future increases in burned area.
Wildfires influence terrestrial carbon cycling and represent a safety risk, and yet a process-based understanding of their frequency and spatial distributions remains elusive. We combine satellite-based observations with an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model to make regionally resolved global assessments of burned area (BA) responses to changing climate, derived from 34 Earth system models and human demographics for 1860-2100. Limited by climate and socioeconomics, recent BA has decreased, especially in central South America and mesic African savannas. However, future simulations predict increasing BA due to changing climate, rapid population density growth, and urbanization. BA increases are especially notable at high latitudes, due to accelerated warming, and over the tropics and subtropics, due to drying and human ignitions. Conversely, rapid urbanization also limits BA via enhanced fire suppression in the immediate vicinity of settlements, offsetting the potential for dramatic future increases, depending on warming extent. Our analysis provides further insight into regional and global BA trends, highlighting the importance of including human demographic change in models for wildfire under changing climate.
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