期刊
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
卷 190, 期 5, 页码 939-948出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwaa239
关键词
agent-based models; HIV; HIV prevention; interference/dissemination; men who have sex with men; preexposure prophylaxis
资金
- National Institutes of Health (NIH) [1DP2DA046856-01]
- NIH from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development [R21HD098733]
- NIH [DP1DA034989, P30DA011041, R25MH083620, F31MH121112]
Research has shown that using PrEP for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men can protect users and reduce HIV risk among their uninfected sexual partners. Agent-based modeling studies indicate that individuals not on PrEP may also benefit from reduced HIV transmission risk in sexual networks with high PrEP coverage.
Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection may benefit not only the person who uses it but also their uninfected sexual risk contacts. We developed an agent-based model using a novel trial emulation approach to quantify disseminated effects of PrEP use among men who have sex with men in Atlanta, Georgia, from 2015 to 2017. Model components (subsets of agents connected through partnerships in a sexual network but not sharing partnerships with any other agents) were first randomized to an intervention coverage level or the control group; then, within intervention components, eligible agents were randomized to receive or not receive PrEP. We calculated direct and disseminated (indirect) effects using randomization-based estimators and report corresponding 95% simulation intervals across scenarios ranging from 10% coverage in the intervention components to 90% coverage. A population of 11,245 agents was simulated, with an average of 1,551 components identified. When comparing agents randomized to no PrEP in 70% coverage components with control agents, there was a 15% disseminated risk reduction in HIV incidence (risk ratio = 0.85, 95% simulation interval: 0.65, 1.05). Persons not on PrEP may receive a protective benefit by being in a sexual network with higher PrEP coverage. Agent-based models are useful for evaluating possible direct and disseminated effects of HIV prevention modalities in sexual networks.
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