期刊
IEEE ACCESS
卷 9, 期 -, 页码 75553-75567出版社
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3082188
关键词
Roads; Trajectory; Spatiotemporal phenomena; Licenses; Computational modeling; Traffic congestion; Prediction algorithms; Urban traffic congestion; spatiotemporal pattern; short-term prediction; taxi trajectory; road traffic performance index
资金
- 111 Project of Sustainable Transportation for Urban Agglomeration in Western China [B20035]
This study analyzed and predicted the traffic conditions within the Third Ring Road in Xi'an using GPS data and time series forecasting models. Suggestions for alleviating traffic congestion were provided, including accelerating urban traffic construction and prioritizing the development of public transportation.
Severe traffic congestion has promoted the development of the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS). Accurately analyzing and predicting the traffic states of the urban road networks has important theoretical significance and practical value for improving traffic efficiency and formulating ITS scheme according to local conditions. This study aims to identify and predict the traffic operation status in the road network within the Third Ring Road in Xi'an and explore spatiotemporal patterns of traffic congestion. In this paper, firstly, we discriminated the traffic status of the urban road network used the GPS data of floating vehicles (e.g., taxis and buses) in Xi'an by the Travel Time Index (TTI). Secondly, we used the emerging hot spot analysis method to locate different hot spot patterns. The time series clustering method was used to divide the whole road network's locations into distinct clusters with similar spatiotemporal characteristics. Thirdly, we applied three different time series forecasting models, including Curve Fit Forecast (CFF), Exponential Smoothing Forecast (ESF), Forest-based Forecast (FBF), to predict the traffic operation status. Finally, we summarized the spatiotemporal characteristics of the whole-network congestion. The results of this study can contribute some helpful insights for alleviating traffic congestion. For instance, it is essential to speed up the construction of urban traffic microcirculation and increase the road network density. Moreover, it is crucial to adhere to the urban public transport priority development strategy and increase public transportation travel sharing.
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