Likelihood analysis of the minimal AMSB model

We perform a likelihood analysis of the minimal anomaly-mediated supersymmetry-breaking (mAMSB) model using constraints from cosmology and accelerator experiments. We find that either a wino-like or a Higgsino-like neutralino LSP, (chi) over tilde (0)(1), may provide the cold dark matter (DM), both with similar likelihoods. The upper limit on the DM density from Planck and other experiments enforces m((chi) over tilde 10) less than or similar to 3 TeV after the inclusion of Sommerfeld enhancementx. in its annihilations. If most of the cold DM density is provided by the (chi) over tilde (0)(1), the measured value of the Higgs mass favours a limited range of tan beta similar to 5 (and also for tan beta similar to 45 if mu > 0) but the scalar mass m(0) is poorly constrained. In the wino-LSP case, m(3/2) is constrained to about 900 'rev and m((chi) over tilde 10) to 2.9 0.1 TeV, whereas in the Higgsino-LSP case M-3/2 has just a lower limit greater than or similar to 650 TeV (greater than or similar to 480 TeV) and m((chi) over tilde 10) is constrained to 1.12 (1.13) +/- 0.02 TeV in the mu > 0 (mu < 0) scenario. In neither case can the anomalous magnetic moment of the moon,(g - 2)(mu), be improved significantly relative to its Standard Model (SM) value, nor do flavour measurements constrain the model significantly, and there are poor prospects for discovering supersymmetric particles at the LHC, though there are some prospects for direct DM detection. On the other hand, if the <(chi)over tilde>(0)(1) contributes only a fraction of the cold DM density, future LHC (E) over bar (T)-based searches for gluinos, squarks and heavier chargino and neutralino states as well as disappearing track searches in the wino-like LSP region will be relevant, and interference effects enable BR(B-s,B-d -> mu(+)mu(-)) to agree with the data better than in the SM in the case of wino-like DM with mu > 0.