期刊
HYDROLOGY
卷 8, 期 3, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/hydrology8030134
关键词
soil and water assessment tool (SWAT); hydrological modeling; calibration and validation; climate change
资金
- Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS) of the Ditch Ministry of Foreign Affairs
- American University of Beirut Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy
- American University of Beirut International Affairs and Banque-Franco-Libanaise
- IHE Delft
This study simulated the impact of climate change on streamflow of El Kalb river in Lebanon using SWAT model. The model showed a good fit between observed and simulated flow, with a significant decrease in flow projected for the future.
Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow is crucial for depicting the vulnerability of water resources and for identifying proper adaptation measures. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the impact of climate change on the streamflow of El Kalb river, a major perennial river in Lebanon. The model performance was tested for monthly flow at two stations under a nine-year calibration period (2003-2011) and a four-year validation period (2012-2015). The model results indicated satisfactory precision in fitting observed and simulated flow using various acceptable statistical indices. Future projections of climate change were obtained for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). The model indicated that the average annual discharge of El Kalb River in the near future (2021-2040) will decrease by around 28-29% under the three RCP scenarios. End-of-century projections (2081-2100) indicated that the flow will decrease by 23%, 28%, and 45% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively.
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