Predicting United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 2 Clinical Knowledge Scores from Previous Academic Performance Measures within a Longitudinal Interleaved Curriculum

Background United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 is a common metric looked at by residency programs to determine invitations for candidates to interview. However, USMLE Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) has also been an important factor for selecting applicants to interview and plays a significant role during applicant selection. This study aims to identify academic performance measures that correlate with USMLE Step 2 CK scores and to develop a model to predict USMLE Step 2 CK scores using previous academic measures from the first two cohorts in the longitudinal interleaved clerkship (LInC) at the Kirk Kerkorian School of Medicine at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (KSOM). Setting The KSOM is a newly accredited US allopathic medical school that accepted its first class in 2017. At KSOM, a LInC model is used in the primary clinical year. In this model, rotations are two weeks in duration before moving on to the next specialty. Students complete the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) subject examinations in all six specialties in one week at the midpoint and the end of the LInC. Students who passed an exam at the midpoint can opt out of that exam at the end as the higher of the two exam scores is recorded. However, most students choose to take all the exams again to improve their scores and prepare for USMLE Step 2 CK. Methodology Academic performance measures were gathered from the class of 2021 and 2022 (n = 101) including undergraduate grade point average (GPA), undergraduate science GPA, medical college admission test score, USMLE Step 1 score, NBME clinical subject exam scores, and USMLE Step 2 CK scores. Pearson correlations were run between the performance variables and USMLE Step 2 CK scores to measure influence variables individually, then a regression model measured impacts of variables together. Results All variables except undergraduate science GPA significantly correlated with USMLE Step 2 CK score. USMLE Step 1 had the strongest correlation (r = 0.752, p < 0.001). The regression model had an R of 0.859 with the internal medicine subject exam showing the highest beta coefficient (0.327, p < 0.001). Conclusions This study determined that USMLE Step 2 CK scores can be effectively predicted using available performance measures. With USMLE Step 1 becoming pass/fail in January 2022, the importance of USMLE Step 2 CK as a screening tool in the residency application process will likely increase. This study was conducted within a LInC curriculum and may have limited value in the prediction of scores within other clinical year curricula.

Automated summary

This study found that USMLE Step 2 CK scores can be effectively predicted using available performance measures. With USMLE Step 1 transitioning to pass/fail in January 2022, the importance of USMLE Step 2 CK as a screening tool in the residency application process is likely to increase.