Should they stay or should they go? Climate migrants and local conflicts

There is extensive evidence that higher temperatures increase the probability of local conflict. There is also evidence that emigration represents an important margin of adaptation to a warming climate. In this article, we analyse whether migration influences the link between warming and conflicts by either attenuating this connection in countries of origin and/or by exacerbating it in countries of destination. We find that in countries where the propensity to emigrate-as measured by past diaspora-is higher, increases in temperature have smaller effects on the probability of armed conflict, compared to countries with lower migration propensity. This is consistent with emigration functioning as 'escape valve' for local tensions. We find no evidence that climate-induced migration increased the probability of conflict in receiving countries.

Automated summary

The study found that in countries with higher propensity for emigration, measured by past diaspora, increases in temperature have smaller effects on the probability of armed conflict, suggesting that emigration could act as an 'escape valve' for local tensions. There was no evidence that climate-induced migration increased the probability of conflict in receiving countries.