Monitoring of Land Use-Land Cover Change and Potential Causal Factors of Climate Change in Jhelum District, Punjab, Pakistan, through GIS and Multi-Temporal Satellite Data

Land use-land cover (LULC) alteration is primarily associated with land degradation, especially in recent decades, and has resulted in various harmful changes in the landscape. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has the prospective capacity to classify the vegetative characteristics of many ecological areas and has proven itself useful as a remote sensing (RS) tool in recording vegetative phenological aspects. Likewise, the normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) is used for quoting built-up areas. The current research objectives include identification of LULC, NDVI, and NDBI changes in Jhelum District, Punjab, Pakistan, during the last 30 years (1990-2020). This study targeted five major LULC classes: water channels, built-up area, barren land, forest, and cultivated land. Satellite imagery classification tools were used to identify LULC changes in Jhelum District, northern Punjab, Pakistan. The perception data about the environmental variations as conveyed by the 500 participants (mainly farmers) were also recorded and analyzed. The results depict that the majority of farmers (54%) believe in the appearance of more drastic changes such as less rainfall, drought, and decreased water availability for irrigation during 2020 compared to 30 years prior. Overall accuracy assessment of imagery classification was 83.2% and 88.8% for 1990, 88.1% and 85.7% for 2000, 86.5% and 86.7% for 2010, and 85.6% and 87.3% for 2020. The NDVI for Jhelum District was the highest in 1990 at +0.86 and the lowest in 2020 at +0.32; similarly, NDBI values were the highest in 2020 at +0.72 and the lowest in 1990 at -0.36. LULC change showed a clear association with temperature, NDBI, and NDVI in the study area. At the same time, variations in the land area of barren soil, vegetation, and built-up from 1990 to 2020 were quite prominent, possibly resulting in temperature increases, reduction in water for irrigation, and changing rainfall patterns. Farmers were found to be quite responsive to such climatic variations, diverting to framing possible mitigation approaches, but they need government assistance. The findings of this study, especially the causes and impacts of rapid LULC variations in the study area, need immediate attention from related government departments and policy makers.

Automated summary

The study found that most farmers believe that climate change has become more severe in the past 30 years, leading to issues such as reduced rainfall, drought, and decreased irrigation water. The overall accuracy of image classification was relatively high, showing a clear association between land use-land cover changes and temperature, NDBI, and NDVI.